Leveraging Climate Action to Advance Climate Security Response in Africa

Recent studies agree that climate-related disasters (including heat waves, droughts, storms and floods) modestly increase armed conflict risks, in the presence of contextual factors like agricultural dependence, insufficient infrastructure, or the political exclusion of ethnic groups. This can occur by (a) worsening livelihood conditions and, for example, pushing people to join extremist groups e.g., Al-Shabaab in Somalia; (b) increasing migration, thus triggering in-migration tensions with the host communities, as happened in Darfur; or (c) pushing pastoralists to move beyond their traditional routes, bringing them into conflict with other pastoralists or farmers (Abshir, 2020). As such, it is no surprise that climate-related security risks are now prominently discussed at different multilateral organizations including UN agencies and RECs such as IGAD. Most prominent among these is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which concludes that, while there is little evidence of a direct causal relationship, there is evidence that climate change or climate variability can increase the risk of armed conflict in certain circumstances (multiplier effect), if not addressed.

According to State of the Climate in Africa 2021 report¹ Africa warmed at an average rate of 0.3°C per decade between 1991 and 2021, faster than the warming from 1961–1990 at 0.2°C per decade. The year 2021 was also the third warmest years on record for Africa. Sea level rise is increasing along the African coastlines at a higher rate than the global mean rate, especially along the Red Sea and southwest Indian Ocean where the rate is close to 4 mm/year. By 2030, 108–116 million people in Africa are expected to be exposed to sea level rise risk. Drought in East Africa has worsened following four consecutive failed rainy seasons combined with heightened conflict, related population displacement, and COVID-19 restrictions. The situation is worsening in 2022 – especially in Ethiopia, Somalia and parts of Kenya and Southern Madagascar.

Parts of Africa have similarly endured extreme weather events, including severe floods in South Sudan, Nigeria, Republic of Congo, DRC and Burundi. South Sudan recorded the third straight year of extreme floods leading to elevated water levels of Lakes and rivers, resulting from the intense rainfall in 2020 and 2021. The opposite was the case in Northern Africa which has experienced extreme heat, especially in Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, and Libya—accompanied by wildfires and sand/dust storms were a recurring problem. Climate-related hazards continued to be a major driver of new displacement in Africa (WMO, 2021). Chronic floods and droughts, sea level rise, and extreme weather events all influence displacement patterns within borders and across international borders.

READ MORE: policy brief 001-2025: Leveraging Climate Action to Advance Climate Security Response in Africa