1. CONTEXT
The Post-COP28 context presents both opportunities and challenges for advancing climate diplomacy in equal measures. The continued expansion of fossil fuels and gas by many G7 countries is a worrisome context as it portends a further growth in emissions at a time when the global community is keen on emissions reduction.
So far elections that have taken place in Europe have seen wins from far-right movements, which are less supportive of the climate change agenda and the situation is not likely to be different to the European Union, poised to hold elections this year. In US, a second administration of Trump in increasingly becoming feasible, with grave implications on the pursuit of the Paris Agreement.
Also to dominate the global geopolitical interactions is the the Russia-Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas Wars, alongside other pockets of conflicts defining a new paradigm for geo-strategic relationships, compelling a rethink on how best to strengthen and sustain stronger and mutually-beneficial collaborations – a trend that ought to be fully exploited.
In the international climate negotiations process, the momentum created by the Global Stock take – though not much prescriptive decisions at COP28 – will be useful in supporting the framing of progressive agenda across all negotiation tracks. Reinforced by the UAE Framework on Resilience, the two additional years for developing indicators and matrices of measuring the Global Goal on Adaptation will be a space to secure this goal, while advancing for greater commitment for increased adaptation.
Key other notable milestones in Dubai were declarations on health and agriculture, signaling the importance action on the issues ignored over years, thus elevating them in the priority list of sectoral-thematic interventions. Action is definitely needed to ensure communities in crisis receive support from the Loss and Damage Fund, and work on access modalities remains an investment area.
The Workstream on just transition, established at COP28, marked an important turning point for conversation around climate justice, as the subject evolves to encompass diverse perspectives beyond labour and jobs as it remained the case. With vast deposits of critical minerals required for transition technologies in solar panels, wind turbines and electric cars – cobalt, lithium, coltan, copper, etc – the African continent could be an important enabler of the transition to low carbon, climate-resilient future. The question, though, is whether such minerals, worth trillions of US$, could bridge the gaping hole in international climate finance Read more: PACJA 2024 STRATEGY.