Climate Security in The Horn of Africa

CLIMATE SECURITY IN THE HORN OF AFRICA

There is an increasing consensus that the human security risks of today will be the hard security risks of tomorrow. However, there are no hard security solutions to the encroaching impacts of climate change. Instead, climate-related security risks are transforming the security landscape in general and in the wider region of the Horn of Africa in particular. In an initiative to identify locally anchored ideas and criteria to successfully address climate-related security risks, the Horn of Africa Climate Security Working Group was established by the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES) Kenya Office, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) and the Pan African Climate Justice Alliance (PACJA) in 2018. The Group brings together senior climate and environmental experts and civil society representatives from different countries of the Horn of Africa region, all in their personal capacity. The objective of the Group was to develop criteria and suggestions for mechanisms to incorporate climate-related security risks into regional, continental and international efforts to prevent and regulate violent conflicts in the Horn of Africa.

Without wanting to »securitise« the issue of climate change, the Working Group believes that the impact of climate change on already tense, often cross-boundary and sometimes regional systems of violent conflict in the Horn of Africa requires urgent and sensitive action with the involvement of a variety of stakeholders to strengthen collective security in the region. The following criteria represent Working Group members’ consensus and do not claim to be comprehensive or sufficient for resolving climate-related security risks in the Horn of Africa. However, the Group maintains that inclusive development, conflict prevention and conflict mitigation can become more effective when future policy interventions are based on these criteria.

The Working Group agrees that there is no deterministic relationship between violent conflict and climate change. However, it finds that indirect impacts of climate change on livelihoods increase the risk of conflict and, more specifically, violent conflict. Climate-related security risks are complex and interconnected, and are challenging the development of effective responses at all levels.

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